Timing the Real Estate Market?
Don’t Bother!
The timing is perfect. The holidays are over clouds
and snow blanket the north. Bundled-up snowbirds are descending
on the warm beaches of the Suncoast, their hearts beating faster
with each interest rate drop. So far, so good – home prices
haven’t yet reported they’ve begun their inevitable
rise. Could this season be the optimal season — the final
season of the Buyer’s Market?
For the next three months, real estate brokers will
experience a groundswell of showings and for the following three
months statisticians will measure results as each sale closes. Because
the contracts written today will take a couple of months to close
and be reported, it’s extraordinarily difficult to precisely
time the market. Because you need more than an upward blip to identify
the turnaround, by the time you know it conclusively — the
great deals will be gone.
If you’re lucky, six months from now you may
look back and say: “February, March or April was the perfect
time to buy”. Prices could still slide a little, but if you
intend to hold for a while it really won’t matter over the
long run. Then, you’ll say: “It wasn’t quite the
perfect time but it was good enough for me”. By far, the worst
admission would be: “The opportunity passed while I waited
for perfect timing and by the time I saw it — it was too late”.
Who cares if you’re a little early or a little
late - as long as it’s a little. We’re clearly near
the bottom and some sellers are so desperate that you may negotiate
a further discount to be sure. Maybe, just maybe you’ll hit
this market’s timing directly at its low, the absolute nadir,
right now at the beginning of this season before reported sales
and rising values become common knowledge.
I don’t think we’ll be discussing this
again next season. With interest rates dropping and a large inventory
to choose from, this broker thinks today’s timing is perfect
to make your dream a reality.
Joe Vermeren is a licensed real estate broker president of Longboat
Realty, and may be contacted at www.LongboatMLS.com
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